feat(qwen38): size the protected bf16 expert plane by byte bill, not by ratio

The swift15 rule (top 7% by imatrix energy, bar-only) left the plane size to the
distribution. The w5nl64 arm trades a *pinned host pool* against KL, so the
operator needs to say how many GiB of bf16 experts the pool can afford and have
the set land there: --target-count walks the ranked candidates until the byte
bill matches, keeps the bar-only pass for experts that are disproportionate for
their size, and reports the pool's ceiling instead of padding when the count
cannot be reached.

TP=2 cuts the expert plane into two 256-expert rank halves, and an odd count in
either half unbalances the placement, so the parity audit is a refusal (exit 2,
'PARITY LAW BROKEN'), not a silent fix-up: the driver stops rather than
converting a payload whose expert placement no one priced.

scripts/apply-protected-cast.sh

@@ -1,27 +1,45 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env bash
-# apply-protected-cast.sh — RUNS ON DANKSERVER. Rewrite the recipe's
-# PROTECTED-BEGIN/END section from Swift's OWN calibration grams: run
+# apply-protected-cast.sh — RUNS ON DANKSERVER. Rewrite a recipe's
+# PROTECTED-BEGIN/END section from the campaign's OWN calibration grams: run
 # derive-protected-experts.py over the calib dir, splice its cast lines into
 # the marked section of the recipe in place, keep the pre-edit recipe in the
-# campaign trash. Refuses to run twice (marker text says derived).
+# campaign trash. Refuses to run twice (marker text says derived), and refuses
+# when a requested target count was not reached. Run it on a COPY of the
+# template so the committed recipe stays the clean, reviewable baseline.
 set -euo pipefail
-CALIB=${1:-/home/dank/corpora/calib}
-RECIPE=${2:-/home/dank/serverAppConfigs-swift15/scripts/recipes/qwen4exp-swift15-w4dn8-i8-hc8m.recipe}
-PY=/home/dank/venvs/radcorpus/bin/python
-DERIVE=/home/dank/serverAppConfigs-swift15/scripts/derive-protected-experts.py
+SELF_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
+CALIB=${1:-/home/dank/campaign/qwen38-w5nl64/calib}
+RECIPE=${2:-$SELF_DIR/recipes/qwen4exp-qwen38-w5nl64-bf16trunk.recipe}
+TARGET_COUNT=${3:-0}
+PY=${PY:-/home/dank/venvs/radcorpus/bin/python}
+DERIVE=${DERIVE:-$SELF_DIR/derive-protected-experts.py}
 TS=$(date +%Y%m%d-%H%M%S)
+# OUT and TRASH_DIR are overridable so the seam can drive the whole script in a
+# scratch directory; on the box they are the campaign's usual places.
+OUT=${OUT:-/tmp/protected-cast-$TS.txt}
+TRASH_DIR=${TRASH_DIR:-/home/dank/.AGENTTRASH}
 
 grep -q "derive-protected-experts.py rewrote" "$RECIPE" && {
     echo "recipe already carries derived cast lines; refusing to re-derive" >&2; exit 1; }
 grep -q "PROTECTED-BEGIN" "$RECIPE" || { echo "no PROTECTED markers in $RECIPE" >&2; exit 1; }
 
-"$PY" "$DERIVE" "$CALIB" > "/tmp/protected-cast-$TS.txt"
-N=$(grep -c 'cast dtype=bf16' "/tmp/protected-cast-$TS.txt")
-[ "$N" -ge 2 ] || { echo "derive produced $N cast lines; refusing" >&2; exit 1; }
-echo "derived $N protected experts -> /tmp/protected-cast-$TS.txt"
+ARGS=("$DERIVE" "$CALIB")
+if [ "$TARGET_COUNT" -gt 0 ]; then
+    ARGS+=(--target-count "$TARGET_COUNT")
+fi
+"$PY" "${ARGS[@]}" > "$OUT"
+N=$(grep -c 'cast dtype=bf16' "$OUT")
+[ "$N" -ge 2 ] || { echo "derive produced $N cast lines; refusing (see $OUT)" >&2; exit 1; }
+if [ "$TARGET_COUNT" -gt 0 ] && [ "$N" -lt "$TARGET_COUNT" ]; then
+    echo "derive reached $N protected experts, target was $TARGET_COUNT; refusing to convert" >&2
+    echo "       (the bar sweep bottomed out: the recording is too thin or the target too high)" >&2
+    exit 1
+fi
+echo "derived $N protected experts -> $OUT"
 
-cp -f "$RECIPE" "/home/dank/.AGENTTRASH/$TS-qwen4exp-swift15-w4dn8-i8-hc8m.recipe"
-"$PY" - "$RECIPE" "/tmp/protected-cast-$TS.txt" <<'PYEOF'
+mkdir -p "$TRASH_DIR"
+cp -f "$RECIPE" "$TRASH_DIR/$TS-$(basename "$RECIPE")"
+"$PY" - "$RECIPE" "$OUT" <<'PYEOF'
 import sys
 recipe, castfile = sys.argv[1], sys.argv[2]
 lines = open(recipe).read().splitlines()
@@ -35,7 +53,7 @@ for l in lines:
     elif 'PROTECTED-END' in l:
         insec = False
         out.append(l)
-        out.append('# (derive-protected-experts.py rewrote this section from Swift\'s own grams)')
+        out.append('# (derive-protected-experts.py rewrote this section from the campaign grams)')
     elif not insec:
         out.append(l)
 open(recipe, 'w').write('\n'.join(out) + '\n')