autoresearch: temp sweep, engine evidence, env overlays, arms driver

Four harness gaps that block an honest MTP re-measurement:

- measure: AR_TEMPS sweeps sampling temperatures (default "0,0.7"). Draft
  ACCEPTANCE is sampling-dependent — a greedy draft matches a greedy target
  exactly and is rejected more under a non-greedy target — so judging a spec
  arm only at temperature 0 judges half the contract. The unsuffixed keys stay
  temperature 0, so every historical number remains comparable.
- window: capture an evidence.log sidecar (expert-plan lines, compile path,
  graph sizes, /metrics spec-decode and cache counters, OOM signatures). The
  arena/overhead/reserve numbers exist ONLY in the boot log; an arm that loses
  decode speed is otherwise unexplainable afterwards.
- orchestrator: FRANK_PRIMARY_AR_ENV_FILE stages an env other than the repo's,
  which is how arms A/B without mutating the checkout (the fingerprint covers
  whatever is staged, so the memo can never answer one arm with another's
  numbers), plus METRIC lines for the swept temperatures and the evidence dump.
- scripts/autoresearch/frank-primary-arms.sh: runs a sequence of full windows
  (baseline, MTP3+probabilistic with a step-4 capture ladder at precise memory
  ON, the same at the default overhead, and the vendor SEQS-16 shape), gating
  each staged env on its JSON knobs still parsing AFTER sourcing — an unquoted
  {"temperature":0.7} loses its quotes at source time and reaches the engine as
  {temperature:0.7}, which is a 20-minute boot wasted.
This commit is contained in:
Frank committed 2026-10-02 16:38:17 -07:00
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#!/usr/bin/env bash
# frank-primary-arms.sh — run a SEQUENCE of frank-primary bench arms and keep
# every arm's evidence. Runs on the operator box; each arm is one full window
# of ./autoresearch.sh (stop+mask -> boot the arm as the service -> measure ->
# restore production and verify), so the fleet is only ever down for one arm at
# a time and the production unit is back up between arms.
#
# An arm is the repo's own frank-primary.env plus an OVERLAY of engine knobs
# appended after it (later assignment wins when the serve script sources it),
# staged through FRANK_PRIMARY_AR_ENV_FILE so the checkout is never mutated and
# each arm gets its own fingerprint (the memo can never answer one arm with
# another arm's numbers).
#
# Usage: scripts/autoresearch/frank-primary-arms.sh [arm ...]
# scripts/autoresearch/frank-primary-arms.sh --list
# Output, under /tmp/frank-primary-arms-<UTC stamp>/ (override with ARMS_DIR):
#
# <arm>.out full autoresearch output (metrics + engine evidence)
# <arm>.env the exact staged env
# <arm>.rc window exit code
# summary.tsv arm, rc, decode_tps, decode_tps_t0.7, kv_tokens, boot_s
#
# Exit 0 when every arm produced metrics; 1 if any arm failed (a failed boot is
# a RESULT — the window still restored production, and the rc says which arm).
set -uo pipefail
SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd -- "$(dirname -- "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
REPO="$(cd -- "$SCRIPT_DIR/../.." && pwd)"
BASE_ENV="$REPO/scripts/frank-primary.env"
ARMS_DIR="${ARMS_DIR:-/tmp/frank-primary-arms-$(date -u +%Y%m%dT%H%M%SZ)}"
# --- arms ------------------------------------------------------------------
# baseline: the shipped shape E, measured with THIS harness so the comparison is
# matched (the ~29.6 t/s figure in the docs is an older shape, and no shape-E
# decode number exists yet).
OVER_baseline=()
# B: MTP3 with the vendor's probabilistic draft sampling, a capture ladder whose
# step is num_speculative_tokens + 1 = 4, and the sampling override. Precise
# memory stays ON — this arm is simultaneously the MTP test and the test of
# whether MTP's drafter workspace and the fitted 5.25 GiB overhead can coexist.
SPEC3='{"method":"mtp","num_speculative_tokens":3,"draft_sample_method":"probabilistic"}'
LADDER3='{"cudagraph_capture_sizes":[4,8,12],"max_cudagraph_capture_size":12,"inductor_compile_config":{"combo_kernels":false,"benchmark_combo_kernel":false}}'
# The value must arrive in the staged env file SINGLE-QUOTED: sourcing an env
# file performs quote removal, so an unquoted {"temperature":0.7} would reach
# the engine as {temperature:0.7}.
GEN07='{"temperature":0.7}'
OVER_B=(
"FRANK_PRIMARY_SPEC='$SPEC3'"
"FRANK_PRIMARY_COMPCONFIG='$LADDER3'"
'FRANK_PRIMARY_GEN_CONFIG='"'$GEN07'"
)
# B2: identical to B with the default (7.60 GiB) overhead, i.e. precise memory
# OFF. It is the fallback if B dies at graph capture, and it prices the arena
# that precise memory buys (7,522 slots -> ~6,496).
OVER_B2=(
"FRANK_PRIMARY_SPEC='$SPEC3'"
"FRANK_PRIMARY_COMPCONFIG='$LADDER3'"
'FRANK_PRIMARY_GEN_CONFIG='"'$GEN07'"
'FRANK_PRIMARY_PRECISE_MEMORY='
)
# C: the vendor's concurrency shape — SEQS 16 with the [4..32] ladder and util
# 0.95. This is also the direct test of the theory that pinning the capture
# ladder unlocks SEQS > 3 (the SEQS=2 failure was query_start_loc specialised to
# the constant 3, which is NOT in the default ladder; 4 is).
LADDER16='{"cudagraph_capture_sizes":[4,8,12,16,20,24,28,32],"max_cudagraph_capture_size":32,"inductor_compile_config":{"combo_kernels":false,"benchmark_combo_kernel":false}}'
OVER_C=(
"FRANK_PRIMARY_SPEC='$SPEC3'"
"FRANK_PRIMARY_COMPCONFIG='$LADDER16'"
'FRANK_PRIMARY_GEN_CONFIG='"'$GEN07'"
'FRANK_PRIMARY_SEQS=16'
'FRANK_PRIMARY_MNBT=4096'
'FRANK_PRIMARY_UTIL=0.95'
)
arm_overlay() {
case "$1" in
baseline) ;; # the shipped env, no overlay
B) printf '%s\n' "${OVER_B[@]}" ;;
B2) printf '%s\n' "${OVER_B2[@]}" ;;
C) printf '%s\n' "${OVER_C[@]}" ;;
*) return 1 ;;
esac
}
if [ "${1:-}" = "--list" ]; then
printf 'baseline B B2 C\n'
exit 0
fi
[ -f "$BASE_ENV" ] || { echo "[arms] missing $BASE_ENV" >&2; exit 1; }
if [ "$#" -gt 0 ]; then ARMS=("$@"); else ARMS=(baseline B B2 C); fi
mkdir -p "$ARMS_DIR"
echo "[arms] dir $ARMS_DIR arms: ${ARMS[*]}" >&2
: >"$ARMS_DIR/summary.tsv"
printf 'arm\trc\tdecode_tps\tdecode_tps_t0.7\tkv_tokens\tboot_s\n' >>"$ARMS_DIR/summary.tsv"
overall=0
for arm in "${ARMS[@]}"; do
if ! arm_overlay "$arm" >"$ARMS_DIR/$arm.overlay"; then
echo "[arms] unknown arm: $arm" >&2
overall=1
continue
fi
{ cat "$BASE_ENV"; echo; echo "# --- arm $arm overlay ($(date -u +%FT%TZ)) ---"
arm_overlay "$arm"; } >"$ARMS_DIR/$arm.env"
# Gate the staged env BEFORE burning a ~20-minute window: every knob that
# holds JSON must still be one valid JSON object after the file is SOURCED
# (that is the step that silently eats unquoted braces).
if ! bash -c 'set -a; . "$1" >/dev/null; set +a
for k in FRANK_PRIMARY_SPEC FRANK_PRIMARY_COMPCONFIG FRANK_PRIMARY_GEN_CONFIG; do
v="${!k:-}"
[ -n "$v" ] || continue
case "$v" in
"{"*) python3 -c "import json,sys; json.loads(sys.argv[1])" "$v" \
|| { echo "[arms] $k is not valid JSON: $v" >&2; exit 1; } ;;
*) echo "[arms] $k is not a JSON object: $v" >&2; exit 1 ;;
esac
done' _ "$ARMS_DIR/$arm.env"; then
echo "[arms] $arm: staged env rejected, window not opened" >&2
echo 99 >"$ARMS_DIR/$arm.rc"
overall=1
continue
fi
echo "[arms] === $arm: opening window $(date -u +%H:%M:%S)Z ===" >&2
FRANK_PRIMARY_AR_ENV_FILE="$ARMS_DIR/$arm.env" \
"$REPO/autoresearch.sh" >"$ARMS_DIR/$arm.out" 2>&1
rc=$?
echo "$rc" >"$ARMS_DIR/$arm.rc"
echo "[arms] === $arm: rc=$rc $(date -u +%H:%M:%S)Z ===" >&2
grep -E '^METRIC ' "$ARMS_DIR/$arm.out" | sed 's/^METRIC //' >"$ARMS_DIR/$arm.metrics" || true
metric() { local v; v="$(sed -n "s/^$1=//p" "$ARMS_DIR/$arm.metrics" | tail -1)"; printf '%s' "${v:-$2}"; }
printf '%s\t%s\t%s\t%s\t%s\t%s\n' "$arm" "$rc" \
"$(metric decode_tps FAIL)" "$(metric decode_tps_t0.7 FAIL)" \
"$(metric kv_tokens ?)" "$(metric boot_seconds ?)" >>"$ARMS_DIR/summary.tsv"
[ "$rc" -ne 0 ] && overall=1
done
echo "[arms] summary:" >&2
cat "$ARMS_DIR/summary.tsv" >&2
exit "$overall"